March Weather Recap for 2011

Maybe I should have called this blog, 'What went on with the weather in March and why anyone should care'. Few people actually read articles concerning stuff that was done to them in the past. Ask the average Joe on the street what the weather was a few days ago and he'll begin to do that squint things that people do when they been asked something that makes them uncomfortable. I could just as well as asked, 'Is that stain on your shirt of recent origin'?

The thing is, weather does play a major role in our lives whether we like it or not! String a few cold and overcast days together and many of us become a little bit depressed. When a month is colder than normal or predominantly overcast, this effect can become magnified. On the other side of the coin, if a month was warmer and sunnier than normal, then that can have a very good effect cumulatively. That's my theory at least.

This March 2011 was interesting in a number of respects. It was both warmer (by .9 of a degree) and wetter (by half an inch) that would be considered average if you took the last thirty years for comparison. This data was taken from the West Plains, Missouri data which is a little bit more accurate than the readings from Springfield, I feel. (Springfield, it should be noted was very similar to West Plain this time around).

Here is the raw data for West Plains. Mo.:

After the disaster that was the last three months in terms of rainfall or lack thereof, it was encouraging to see the drought in this area moderated a little bit. Following is a table showing the historical precipitation readings for the West Plains and Springfield, Missouri area:

Location	30 yr	W. Plains	SGF
Month	Avg	2011	2011
Jan	2.11	0.4	0.26
Feb	2.28	3.59	3.43
Mar	3.82	3.28	4.25
Apr	4.31
May	4.57
Jun	5.02
Jul	3.56
Aug	3.37
Sep	4.83
Oct	3.47
Nov	4.46
Dec	3.17
Total	44.97	-0.94	-0.27

While we did have plenty of rain this month and last, January only recorded a miserly 0.40 in West Plains and 0.26 of an inch in Springfield! So, while February and March did help dig us out of a rainfall hole, we finished the month still behind. If we do get a lot of rainfall in April, so much to the good.

Temperatures in the area were a little bit below historical standards when averaged for the three month period for both reporting stations.

Month	Mean	W. Plains	SGF
Jan	31.7	31	29.8
Feb	37.1	37.8	34.3
Mar	46.4	47.3	46.6
Apr	55.7
May	64.7
Jun	73.4
Jul	78.5
Aug	77.6
Sep	69.3
Oct	58.4
Nov	45.9
Dec	35.7

When nature goes on a rampage, be prepared!

Of all the forms of weather we see here in southwest Missouri, I think it’s the potential for ice storms that instill the most anxiety and fear. While tornadoes can cause more damage, they tend to come and go in moments. Icing events can occur over large periods of time, trapping all who are caught wherever they happened to be at the time. If the icing gets bad enough, the trees will begin to lose branches which fall onto power lines. (I’ve been through a storm like that and it’s no fun). Pretty soon there is no power and sometimes the outages can last for days or even weeks. (Many people who live in Springfield can attest to what it’s like to not have power for more than a week)! On January the 13^th 2007, a storm left a broad swath of ice over an area that included the city of Springfield.  It left over 200,000 southwest Missourians without power and a landscape that resembled a war zone. That scenario may well play itself out yet again for towns south of that city if the worst case occurs. I live in a location that is just south of the city and which is smack in the middle of the area that may see problems.

So, I thought it might be a good idea for me to take stock and to have a plan if the power goes out and stays out sometime over the next few days. In all likely hood, nothing is going to happen. The storm may just dump some sleet or snow or perhaps nothing but a rain shower or two. You just never know, but I can tell you from long experience, it’s those times when you don’t plan that catch you napping.

This year, I have a small generator that is just big enough to run a small heater, a lamp and a deep freezer. Since I have a finished basement, I would move down to it in the event of a power outage where I can easily heat an area that is always at about 65F. I also a small deep freeze down there, and so would have a way to keep some of my food from rotting. Rounding out my survival gear are a couple of Coleman stoves, sleeping bags and other assorted stuff I normally have for camping out during the summer. I also have a large stash of candles for emergency light. The storm is supposed to hit us on Tuesday, so on Monday I plan to visit a grocery store, fill up on gas, buy food that’s easy to prepare and stock up on batteries for portable radios and flashlights. Since I know that the weather is forecast to warm up to forty degrees two days after this event, I also have an idea of how long I would have to hold out even if we get four or more inches of ice.

By having a plan and working it, anyone can get through bad times. A plan that will work for not only ice storms, but also for other kinds of disaster where the services we all count on can be interrupted.

Now, that I’m ready for bear, I can bet you all that absolutely nothing will happen and that's just fine by me!

January 2011 Mid Month Weather Summary

[Forsyth Mo.] – January in southwest Missouri is normally moderately cold with a mean average temperature of 31.4F (West Plains 30 year data). We also normally about 1.31 inches of precipitation. (Data for West Plains)

So far this month, through the 15^th, the Forsyth area was colder than normal with a mean temperature of 28.4 F (3 degrees below normal) and just two tenths tenth of an inch of precipitation. Unlike both coasts which have been hammered by the elements, it has been an uneventful winter here so far. You don’t have to go very far back in time, however, to know that ice storms can be our Achilles heel. We still have a lot of winter to go yet.

So, while we are just a month, figuratively, into the winter season, it’s been a pretty good ride. I only hope we get some more water before the end of the month.

My heat pump seems to quit at 30F!

As long as the outside temperature is above 30F my heat pump works pretty well. But, once a real cold spell sets in, I’ve noticed my heating costs have soared. The unit runs continuously and then at some point, gives up and kicks in the auxiliary heat which actually does warm the house. Auxiliary heat is also known as emergency heat and involves the activation of heating strips in the furnace itself. This is a rather inefficient process and one that uses up a lot of electricity. I think even baseboard heating would be better during really cold spells.

Overnight on January the 12th, the outside temperature got down to the low teens (see graph). This was combined with a cold day to bring the average temperature down to 13.4F. As a result the heat pump was on continuously and was able to maintain an indoor reading of 70F only by cycling the auxiliary heating coils on and off. In the graph the line just below the 70 degree mark was the actual core temperature of my house. The ‘load’ figure is derived from subtracting the ‘core’ temperature from the average outside temperature. Even a small increase in load factors above 40 degrees results in an exponential jump in kilowatts burned.

If I see a prolonged cold spell coming, I might just elect to shut down the house, turn the thermostat to 56F and go stay in a cheap hotel room for the duration. I think it would almost be cheaper that way.

It’s a Cold Blogger Blogging

Typically, about this time of year (January) in southwest Missouri, I begin to internally grouse about how cold it’s been. It’s 21 degrees Fahrenheit this morning and my body is now set on low shiver. (While trying to save a little energy, I’ve set my thermostat down to 69F in early December and that’s pretty much where it’s been at ever since). Let’s see air temp is 69F, body temp is 98F. What’s wrong with that picture? To keep warm, I have a couple of strategically placed space heaters that have already seen quite a bit of use. I generally have one close to my feet, which are cold most of the time even with socks on.

When I get to feeling really blue, like I am today, I go on the internet to see how cities to my north are faring. They say misery loves company, especially if that someone is more miserable than you are! So, I look at a map and right away I feel much better. [Silent cackling] Minneapolis is in the negative digits at just a few degrees below zero. My Gawd, Fargo, North Dakota is at fourteen below. Wow, I’m feeling so much better now.

Cold, I will assume, is more or less a state of mind. That is, until hypothermia sets in, and then you have some real problems. My current state of mind is somewhere between ickythermia and happythermia. It's leaning more to the former as the weather lady on TV just informed me that things are going to get even more dicey early this coming week (January 11th and 12^th) with forecast highs in only the upper twenties and lows hovering close to or below zero. Bout time I looked for that old pair of thermal underwear, I guess. I haven’t even bothered to see what’s going to happen to the folks in Fargo. What do you call a frozen man in that city...a Fargosickle of course!

On a brighter note, this will be an excellent opportunity to see how well my winterized house holds up against some truly cold conditions. My heat pump will just have to content itself with running almost entirely in ‘auxillary mode’ which is double-speak for ‘this is an f’ing emergency mode’. Were I of the mind, I would take that opportunity to watch the little metal disk on the electric meter go nuts. I won’t, but I do intend to call my local power cooperative to see if they might need some more Champagne! I guess it’s the best of both worlds when you can crank the heat up to your hearts content and get paid for it all at the same time.

December 2010 Weather Recap for Forsyth Missouri

"Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,

And I'm wondering what it is I should do,

It's so hard to keep this smile from my face,

Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place,

Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right,

Here I am, stuck in the middle with you."

When I think about December 2010 here in southwest Missouri, I’m reminded of that old song called ‘Stuck in the Middle With You’. While December saw numerous winter storms rage on both sides of the nation, most of us in the middle states were left a bit cold and dry.

Temperatures

Were it not for a shot of warmth in the waning days of the month, we’d have seen temperatures that averaged a bit above normal (.7F). That was due to the phenomenal late rise in the temperatures in just the last few days of the month. The graph above depicts the mean temperatures fro 2010 compared to 2009. The data points were obtained locally.

Precipitation

While some areas recorded over an inch of rain for December, my gauge only showed .30 of an inch. In a month that would normally see three inches, that pitiful amount just didn’t cut it. We seem to be trending in the direction of a drought. I sure hope 2011 proves me wrong on that score.

Power usage

The average mean temperature for the month was 35Fis pretty much what we have been getting for the last thirty years. As a result, my energy use was also typical at about 63 KWh per day. This represents about a 13% improvement in energy savings over the previous two years, all things considered.

Mid-December 2010 Temperature & Energy Use Report for Forsyth Missouri

Forsyth, Mo. -  My intent is to post temperature information I have been gathering as part ongoing research for a book on home energy saving practices due out sometime in March 2011.

The graph displayed above represents temperature data taken for my home here in southwest Missouri. The data for the previous year of 2009 was gleamed from a fellow weather watcher over in White Tail Crossing, a location just to the north of Branson, Missouri.

The major difference between last year and this year is the fact that temperatures, on average, have been much lower than they were in 2009. This is true, at least through the first two weeks of the month. Plotted in the graph above are the mean temperatures for each date which represents the average of the highs and lows for that twenty-four hour period. (I posted these and not the actual highs and lows as they are more indicative of trend analysis. The actual values are posted on the left side for anyone who is interested).

As you can see this year’s average temperature, through the middle of the month, is 3.8 degrees Fahrenheit colder the thirty year average. I think for there to be any significant difference of more than say a tenth of a degree when compared to thirty previous December is significant in and of itself. (Whether this is indicative of a long term change, a blip or one that will average itself out over the balance of the month remains to be seen).

Likewise, the energy used to heat my home is also trending upwards in line with the colder air outside. Last year, I used 2,074 kilowatt hours and the year before that (with the average mean temperatures close to normal) 1,878 KWh. This year, in spite of efforts to better insulate my home, I am trending to come in at 1,978 KWh (63.8 times 31 days) which would only be marginally below last year. Colder than normal months can be significant to anyone on a fixed income when considered on top of a 13+ percent rise in the cost of electricity we received in my county earlier this year. (As a side note, the Springfield weather office is reporting an even larger seven degree mean temperature variance this year versus average).

Precipitation for most of the Taney county-wide area has also been a little sparse. Most sites have recorded around a tenth of an inch or less since the first of the month. In a normal year, we should see somewhere between three and four inches,

The bottom line, so far, is a month that is colder and dryer than usual. However, the weather service is hinting at a moderation of temperatures for the later weeks of this month. Now if we just get some rain!

Anticipating my electric bills based on mean outside temperatures.

For all of December, I have been recording the temperature in three major rooms of my house (Living room, Dining area and Master bedroom) three times a day in order to get a feel for the average temperature that is maintained 24/7. I have had the thermostat set between 69F and 70F for the entire period. The end result of all this measuring has been to determine that the average temperature for the core of my home has been 68F.The central unit used to heat my home is a heat pump. There are also a couple of small space heaters that are used as needed.

Since I now knew what the average level was inside and had also recorded the average outside temperature from day to day, I was able to construct the graph pictured here. On the left side is power use expressed as kilowatt hours while the X axis displays what I call ‘load’ which is merely the difference of the average inside temperatures (68F) minus the average outside temperature for any given day. I then graphed each day as a point in a spreadsheet expressed as an x-y scatter diagram. To this set of data, I have applied a trend line that is extend backwards twenty units. As you can see, there is pretty close agreement when comparing the kilowatt hours used to daily average temperature (the R-squared value was 0.9101). This graph then, gives me a pretty handy tool for anticipating not only the cost of electricity for a particular day but also for a week or a month.

As I have data for the first thirteen days, so then do I also have a pretty good way to guess that this month will end up with an average temperature of somewhere between 32 and 37 degrees Fahrenheit ( the fifty percent statistical spread around the historical mean temperature of 35F that is left for the remainder of the month). Therefore, at ten cents approximately a kilowatt hour for electricity, I can assume a month end bill of between $186 (60KWh x 31) and $211 (68 x 31). An interesting side note to this experiment is the points that fall either above or below the trend line. I will assume that a point above represents heavier than normal use of appliances while those below, less. This is due to the fact that when measuring the power consumed for each day, I had to measure the total power used by all the electrical devices in the house, not just the furnace. Hope this made some sense.

Introduction

My purpose in creating this blog (Gods knows there are not enough blogs already) is to document my efforts to keep my energy bills as small as possible. No small task, as I have learned over the last year. But, with energy costs on a track to increase significantly over the coming years, I thought it might be fun and instructive to find out what works and what doesn't for me.

By way of background, I live in southwestern Missouri near a town known as Forsyth. A location that experiences a modified version of all four seasons. While our summer tend toward the hotter end of the spectrum, the winters tend to be mild and the spring and fall months delightful. On average my 1600 square foot home uses a two year average of 1,351 kilowatt hours of energy a month to run everything and to keep it warm in the winter and cool in the summer. The cost of this energy is currently at about ten cents a kilowatt hour having just experienced a 13.9% increase a couple of months ago. I think this still places my cost somewhere in the middle of the energy spectrum for what US citizens pay all across the continent.

At this site I have a weather station from Davis Instruments that does a pretty accurate job of tracking temperatures, winds and humidity. I mention this because outside forces can and do play a large part in terms of overall energy costs. This is especially true, in the winter, when I fight to keep every BTU I possibly can inside. The weather outside can and does have a huge effect on how much energy has to be added in order to keep the volume of space I live in comfortable.

During the course of this coming late fall season of 2010 and especially during the winter months, I have written a series of blogs that addresses my efforts to improve the efficiency of devices that affect my energy consumption and therefore my electric bill. While I do have a modest fireplace, I've already decided against using it as a thermal device (too small and way too messy). Instead, I plan to explore methods and devices that anyone can use to cut back on what they have to pay the electric company, while not having to shiver their way through the coldest months of the season.